Tech • AI • Robotics • Game
He raised €60M and predicts the FALL of OpenAI and Anthropic
TL;DR
Ovni Capital argues that Europe produces strong deeptech research but lacks the capital markets, industrial buyers and regulatory unity needed to scale startups, making a U.S. expansion strategy essential.
KEY POINTS
A fund built around European deeptech
Ovni Capital invests in European deeptech startups in fields such as semiconductors, quantum, photonics and nuclear. Its thesis is that these companies should be created in Europe, where universities, laboratories and industrial know-how remain strong, but must scale through the United States to become global businesses.
Why Europe struggles to produce large tech winners
The fund’s view is that Europe missed the SaaS wave and risks repeating the pattern in deeptech. Structural obstacles include lower pools of risk capital, high taxation that reduces corporate investment capacity, and a fragmented market of 27 countries with different rules, making cross-border scaling slower and more expensive than in the U.S.
An exit market dominated by American buyers
A key data point behind the strategy is that 80% of deeptech exits above €300 million over the past decade were reportedly acquired by U.S. buyers. For investors, that means a European startup without commercial or executive presence in America is less likely to optimize its chances of fundraising, customer acquisition and acquisition.
High risk is central to the deeptech model
Deeptech investing is presented as a portfolio game built on extreme uncertainty. One example from the portfolio involves a company using quantum states of light to analyze molecules from a blood sample, a concept with potentially transformative medical applications but with an estimated 90% chance of failure. The model assumes many losses and a few outsized wins.
A first fund raised from nearly 200 backers
Ovni Capital says it took roughly two years to raise its first fund and close at €60 million, above an initial expectation of €30 million. The vehicle ended with 196 subscribers, because concentration rules and investor preferences limited any single contributor from taking too large a share. Early backing came from entrepreneurs and private investors before institutional money followed.
From small commitments to institutional credibility
The fund described a step-by-step progression from €5 million to €8 million, €15 million, €20 million and eventually €60 million. Once it had crossed the €20 million mark, larger institutions became more willing to engage. Backers ultimately included Bpifrance, PwC and the mutual insurer GSMC.
A cross-Atlantic operating footprint
The larger fund size allowed the firm to establish a presence in San Francisco, while maintaining teams in Paris, Berlin and London. That footprint is meant to source European science-driven startups and then help them build relationships in the U.S. market, especially in California, which remains a key hub for frontier technology and venture capital.
Fundraising lessons: cold calling still works
One practical lesson from the fundraise was that direct outreach by phone was more effective than unsolicited emails. Rather than pitching investors immediately, the firm often contacted industry experts for feedback on sectors such as nuclear or industrial technology. That approach created genuine conversations first and investment interest later, especially in a regulated environment where explicit solicitation is restricted.
A contrarian view on frontier AI valuations
The fund also takes a skeptical stance on the valuation of frontier AI model makers such as OpenAI and Anthropic, arguing their economics may prove weaker than expected as open-source models improve rapidly and cheaper alternatives close the performance gap. By contrast, application-layer companies and infrastructure players with stronger cost control or defensibility may capture more durable value.
CONCLUSION
The core bet is that Europe can still generate globally important deeptech companies, but only if founders pair European science with American scale. For investors, the debate is no longer whether Europe has talent, but whether it can build the financial and industrial machinery to keep that talent competitive.
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