Tech • AI • Robotics • Game
Holy S**t! Ron Baron Puts Elon’s “99%” Prediction In Perspective
8/10TL;DR
Ron Baron argues that SpaceX is becoming far more than a launch provider, with sharply lower launch costs, the global reach of Starlink, and a potential future in AI agents underpinning his unusually concentrated personal stake.
KEY POINTS
A portfolio bet centered on SpaceX
Ron Baron said roughly 60% of his personal holdings are in SpaceX, alongside major positions in Tesla and a smaller stake in Baron funds. The weighting reflects his view that SpaceX is still in the early stages of a much larger commercial expansion, particularly through Starlink and next-generation launch economics.
Launch costs have fallen dramatically
Baron’s case begins with the economics of reaching orbit. He cited a decline from about $18,700 per kilogram in 2010 to roughly $2,700 after Falcon 9 reusability began taking hold, and about $1,500 per kilogram with current heavy-lift capability. He said customers are charged around $3,000 per kilogram, while future costs with Starship could drop to roughly $100 to $150 per kilogram, a collapse of nearly two orders of magnitude from the pre-reusability era.
Starlink has created a global connectivity network
The commercial significance of those lower launch costs is most visible in Starlink, which now provides internet service across remote terrain, oceans, aircraft routes and other areas poorly served by terrestrial networks. The network has required the deployment of about 10,000 satellites over time, a scale made possible by frequent, relatively low-cost launches. That footprint has given SpaceX a lead in satellite broadband and emerging direct-to-cell services that competitors have struggled to match.
Starship could sharply expand Starlink capacity
Baron’s thesis also depends on Starship becoming operational at scale. He described the new rocket as capable of carrying around 20 times more than prior systems, and the next generation Starlink V3 satellites are expected to take advantage of that lift. A full Starship payload of V3 satellites could deliver bandwidth roughly equivalent to about 20 Falcon 9 Starlink launches, potentially reducing deployment costs further while accelerating network expansion.
From 20,000 satellites to 100,000
Baron said earlier assumptions called for Starlink to grow from 10,000 to 20,000 satellites, but that target has since shifted to 100,000. The larger plan reflects a broader revenue mix than consumer broadband alone, including government, enterprise and mobile connectivity. In his view, that larger market opportunity materially changes the long-term earnings power of the network.
A trillion-dollar revenue scenario for Starlink
Baron estimated that SpaceX generated about $18 billion in revenue last year, with Starlink contributing the large majority. He said he previously modeled Starlink reaching around $1 trillion in annual revenue within 10 years, with roughly $700 billion to $800 billion in EBITDA. On that basis, he suggested Starlink alone could eventually support a valuation of about $14 trillion to $15 trillion, compared with a current overall SpaceX valuation he described as below $2 trillion.
Consumer broadband is only part of the story
A key element of the projection is that home internet may account for only 30% to 35% of eventual Starlink revenue. Baron said earlier thinking included growth from about 15 million users to 300 million over a decade, set against a global market where roughly 3 billion people still lack internet access and 5 billion more have unsatisfactory service. The rest of the revenue opportunity, in his analysis, comes from institutional and mobile uses rather than households alone.
AI could become the dominant value driver
Baron also pointed to agentic AI as a potentially transformative layer on top of the connectivity business, describing a future in which users deploy always-on digital agents to perform tasks continuously. That aligns with a broader view inside the company that AI could eventually account for the overwhelming majority of SpaceX value. If that proves correct, the investment case would extend beyond launch and broadband into a software and infrastructure platform with far larger profit pools.
CONCLUSION
Baron’s SpaceX thesis rests on a simple sequence: cheaper access to orbit enables a massive satellite network, that network supports global communications at scale, and AI may become an even larger business on top of it. The result, in his view, is a company whose future value could be many times higher than today’s already elevated valuation.
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