Tech • AI • Robotics • Game
The SpaceX Warning Everyone Is Ignoring (You Will Regret)
8/10TL;DR
SpaceX shares are being framed by some investors as undervalued because the market still underestimates how its interlinked businesses in launch, Starlink, and AI compute could scale over the next several years.
KEY POINTS
Morgan Stanley signals upside
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas has set a $300 per share base-case target for SpaceX, implying a valuation not far from a doubling from recent levels. He argued that the period ahead of Starship Flight 15 could offer a rare chance to buy the stock while it still looks “unusually cheap,” suggesting near-term developments may change how investors assess the company.
Investor ownership remains strikingly low
Jonas said that in a recent room of 40 clients, not one owned SpaceX shares, and that usually only one or two hands go up when he asks similar groups. That low participation supports a broader view among bullish investors that institutional understanding of the company remains limited despite a recent rally.
A complex company defies simple valuation
The central argument from SpaceX bulls is that the company cannot be valued accurately through a single lens such as telecom, aerospace and defense, or artificial intelligence alone. Its businesses are tightly connected, and the value lies in the interaction among them rather than in any one segment considered in isolation.
Starship is seen as the key unlock for Starlink
A major part of the bullish case rests on Starship enabling much faster expansion of the Starlink network. With the first next-generation Starlink satellites already deployed on Flight 14, investors focused on payload capacity expect Starship to increase Starlink bandwidth delivered per launch by roughly 10 to 20 times, sharply accelerating network growth once launches become frequent and reliable.
AI compute is emerging as another pillar
Bulls increasingly argue that consensus estimates for SpaceX’s compute-related revenue are too low. The thesis is that rising demand for AI infrastructure, combined with uncertainty around pricing and volume measured in dollars per watt, could materially swing near-term revenue and profit expectations.
Multiple business lines are being folded into the thesis
Beyond launch and satellite internet, investors highlighting upside point to newer or less appreciated lines of business including direct-to-cell connectivity, AI services, orbital applications, and platform partnerships. The argument is that these arms reinforce one another, making the company look expensive only when each is analyzed separately rather than as part of a broader operating system.
The main edge may be analytical effort
Supporters of the stock say the opportunity exists because understanding SpaceX demands deep work across engineering, satellite economics, launch cadence, network capacity, and compute markets. Detailed long-term models now being circulated by some investors include nine business lines, more than 10,000 formulas, and thousands of editable assumptions, underscoring how far this analysis can go beyond standard market shorthand.
CONCLUSION
The bullish case for SpaceX rests less on short-term momentum than on a belief that the market still misunderstands how quickly its launch, broadband, and AI-linked businesses can compound together. If that view gains wider acceptance, today’s valuation may no longer look cheap for long.
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