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Netanyahu’s nightmare: the Arab parties.
3/10TL;DR
Israel’s election produced no governing majority, leaving Arab parties with decisive leverage in coalition talks and deepening uncertainty over the country’s political and strategic direction.
KEY POINTS
No bloc reached 61 seats
Israel’s 120-seat Knesset still requires 61 seats for a governing majority, and no camp achieved it. The bloc aligned with Benjamin Netanyahu won 53 seats, the broader Jewish opposition took 48, and Arab parties emerged with 19 seats, making them central to any viable coalition arithmetic.
Arab parties became kingmakers
The strongest shift came from Arab representation, which rose from 10 seats in 2022 to 19 seats. That result turned Arab parties into potential kingmakers despite years of efforts by the Israeli right, especially around Likud, to reduce their political influence. Their weight now gives them a pivotal role in deciding whether Netanyahu can remain in office or whether an alternative coalition can be built.
First election after 7 October and years of war
This was the first national vote since 7 October 2023 and followed roughly three years of war, giving the result unusual symbolic and political importance. The previous Knesset completed a full four-year term, a rarity in Israel after the period from 2019 to 2022, when the country held five elections amid repeated deadlock.
Turnout hit its highest level since 1999
Participation reached 77.9%, the highest since 1999, with about 5,716,650 ballots cast. The scale of the turnout suggested that, despite war and internal strain, voters still saw elections as meaningful. It also showed that a large share of the electorate was not simply rallying automatically behind Netanyahu, since his bloc still fell well short of a majority.
Netanyahu remains first, but weakened
Likud stayed the largest single party and Netanyahu remained the dominant figure on the right, but his coalition capacity narrowed sharply. His bloc fell from 68 seats previously to 53, a significant loss even if he retained a loyal core among right-wing, religious and ultra-Orthodox allies including Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich.
The opposition is broad but ideologically fragile
The anti-Netanyahu camp gathered around Gadi Eisenkot, a former army chief, but it spans center-left, secular right and nationalist figures with conflicting red lines. Leaders associated with that camp include Yair Lapid, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Liberman. Some are open to Arab backing; others reject any arrangement that would make Arab parties decisive, making coalition building difficult even with Netanyahu short of 61 seats.
Arab voter mobilization surged
Arab citizens voted in far higher numbers than in the last election, with participation estimated near 80%, up from about 53% in 2022. Nearly 840,000 votes reportedly went to the two main Arab lists. In Bedouin communities of the Negev, turnout was also strong, underlining renewed investment in parliamentary politics rather than disengagement.
Coalition scenarios remain narrow
Once official results are submitted to President Isaac Herzog, a designated candidate receives 28 days to form a coalition. If that effort fails repeatedly, Israel could face new elections in early 2027. Among the options under discussion are a minority government tolerated by Arab parties, a unity arrangement, or attempts by Netanyahu to peel away one or two lawmakers from rival camps.
Deadlock has wider geopolitical stakes
The internal struggle comes amid fears of regional escalation, especially around Iran, and debate over whether wartime politics is being used to shape electoral outcomes. With Israel divided and coalition math unresolved, the result matters beyond domestic politics because it will influence decision-making on war, diplomacy and Israel’s standing abroad.
CONCLUSION
The election exposed a fragmented Israeli political system in which Netanyahu remains powerful but no longer commands a clear path to rule. The immediate balance of power now rests with Arab parties, whose rise could shape both the next government and Israel’s broader regional trajectory.
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