Tech • AI • Robotics • Game
Ron Baron Just Said SpaceX Could Hit $50 Trillion
9.2/10TL;DR
Ron Baron said SpaceX could be worth $20 trillion to $50 trillion within a decade, arguing that Starlink and future space-based data infrastructure could drive growth far beyond current private-market valuations.
KEY POINTS
Baron’s 10-year valuation call
Ron Baron, the veteran growth investor behind Baron Capital, said SpaceX could rise 20 to 30 times from its current value over the next 10 years. He placed the company’s potential worth at $20 trillion, $30 trillion or even $50 trillion, and added that Elon Musk considers that estimate too conservative.
Starlink as the core engine
Baron said Starlink alone could be worth about $14 trillion to $15 trillion within a decade. He described the satellite internet network as still being in the early stages of expansion, implying that global connectivity, recurring subscription revenue and network scale could underpin a valuation larger than most public companies today.
Bet on space-based data centers
Beyond broadband, Baron pointed to data centers in space as a major future business. He argued that terrestrial constraints are making it harder to build enough computing infrastructure on Earth and said orbital data capacity could become a business worth a multiple of Starlink’s value. That view underpins his belief that current estimates for SpaceX remain too low.
A major existing stake
Baron said his firm owns about 1.25% of SpaceX. He said the position is worth roughly $25 billion and that he invested another $1 billion in a recent transaction to avoid dilution and maintain that ownership level. He added that the firm’s SpaceX holding exceeds the value of its stake in Nvidia by $3 billion to $4 billion.
How Baron built the position
Baron said he began buying SpaceX shares in 2017 through employee tender offers and other secondary transactions. He estimated total investment at about $2.5 billion, which had grown to roughly $25 billion by June, implying an approximate 10-fold increase in value on the capital committed over that period.
Early pricing and appreciation
Baron said SpaceX was valued at about $20 billion when he started buying and is now valued around $2 trillion in his assessment. That would imply a 100-fold increase in enterprise value in less than a decade, a scale of appreciation that helps explain his willingness to keep adding even after the stake became one of his largest holdings.
Long-term ownership philosophy
Baron framed the investment through a strict long-duration lens, emphasizing ownership over trading. He said he advises friends to buy SpaceX, continue buying regularly and ignore volatility. His rule of thumb is that when the position feels uncomfortably large, investors who still believe in the business should consider buying more rather than reducing exposure.
Track record with Tesla
Baron tied his confidence in SpaceX to a long relationship with Musk dating back to Tesla’s 2010 IPO. He initially dismissed the idea that Tesla could succeed, citing hostility from entrenched industries and the long history of failed carmakers. After four years of observation, he invested about $400 million in Tesla between 2014 and 2016, a stake he said has generated about $7.7 billion so far, with more upside still ahead in his view.
CONCLUSION
Baron’s forecast ranks among the most aggressive private-market calls on SpaceX, hinging on the idea that Starlink becomes a global communications giant and that orbital computing opens an even larger market. If that thesis proves correct, SpaceX would move from being one of the world’s most valuable private companies to one of the most valuable enterprises in economic history.
Ask a question