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Russia and Ukraine are inventing the future of war": former Google CEO Eric Schmidt | The Economist
7/10TL;DR
Eric Schmidt warned that Russia is rapidly matching Ukraine’s wartime innovation while bringing greater scale and resources, leaving Kyiv increasingly dependent on Western funding, production help and faster military adaptation.
KEY POINTS
Russia’s innovation surge
Schmidt said the central shift in the war is that Russia is no longer the slower adapter. In his assessment, Moscow’s rate of military innovation now resembles Ukraine’s, but with far greater industrial depth and manpower. He cited five pressure points: ballistic missiles, jet-powered Shahed drones, possible new mobilization, a Russian satellite network comparable to Starlink, and increasingly destructive precision glide bombs.
Ballistic missile gap
Ukraine still lacks an effective answer to many Russian ballistic missile strikes, while Western Patriot interceptors remain too scarce. Schmidt argued that any one of Russia’s emerging advantages might be manageable on its own, but together they form a threat that Kyiv is unlikely to offset without outside support. He said the most immediate needs are straightforward: money and help scaling production.
Jet Shaheds are changing the war
Russia has upgraded large numbers of Shahed drones with small jet engines sourced through China, allowing them to fly faster and higher and making interception harder. Schmidt said more than half of the Shahed inventory may now be jet-powered, far above earlier expectations. Reports he referenced suggest plans for up to 80,000 such drones against Kyiv and other cities before year’s end.
Chinese parts and airborne relay networks
Schmidt described a second Russian adaptation: a mesh relay network built from Chinese components to compensate for the absence of a Russian battlefield equivalent to Starlink. He said pairs of drones can orbit as communications relays, enabling operators to receive 8K video and conduct highly precise strikes. He pointed to a strike that penetrated directly through a window at Ukraine’s SBU headquarters as a warning of the system’s accuracy.
A Russian Starlink-like system may be a year away
Evidence suggests Russia has begun launching a satellite network called Rusevet, though Schmidt said it does not yet appear operational. His estimate is that it could be roughly a year away. If deployed, he said, it would be extremely difficult to block and could allow Russia to hunt targets across Ukraine with far greater reach.
Ukraine is innovating, but cannot scale fast enough
Schmidt said at least five Ukrainian companies are testing responses to jet Shaheds and that workable solutions may arrive soon. But he argued the wider problem is industrial scale, not ingenuity. Ukraine has shown the ability to develop systems under battlefield pressure, yet still lacks mass production for some of its most effective weapons and has no direct equivalent to Russia’s jet Shaheds.
Machine vision is not yet full AI warfare
Much of what is currently described as AI on the battlefield is instead advanced machine vision and terminal guidance. Schmidt said these systems improve the final stage of targeting, but they do not “learn” in the way true artificial intelligence does. He added that genuine AI use in war remains early, though both sides are moving toward software that can assist with planning, force positioning and pattern analysis.
Jamming remains a core battlefield problem
When autonomous guidance underperforms human operators, Schmidt said the issue is usually not the concept itself but electronic warfare. He described cases in which a Switchblade 600 and even HIMARS missed after lock-on because of jamming. He argued this is a solvable engineering problem and that precise terminal guidance remains essential to modern strike warfare.
Human control must remain central
Schmidt warned against fully autonomous military decision-making, arguing that an AI given only a broad command could pursue unlawful or catastrophic actions. He said every strike decision should remain bounded by human judgment and the laws of war. Even if adversaries push autonomy further, he argued the answer is not to permit war crimes but to give Ukraine better tools within legal limits.
The West understands the problem but changes too slowly
Schmidt said many officials in the United States and Europe understand how drones, AI-enabled targeting and cheap precision weapons are changing warfare, but military procurement systems remain deeply resistant to change. He called for keeping existing budgets while shifting more spending toward cheaper, faster and more effective systems. He also argued that Europe should treat Ukraine as a defense innovation engine and license its technology for local production.
CONCLUSION
Schmidt’s warning is less about a single weapon than about speed: Russia is adapting faster than expected, and Ukraine’s ability to hold its edge now depends on whether Western governments can fund, scale and modernize quickly enough. He remains optimistic that AI can stay under human control, but says battlefield reality is already punishing delay.
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